An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances is a work on the mathematical theory of probability by Thomas Bayes, published in 1763, two years after its author's death, and containing multiple amendments and additions due to his friend Richard Price.The title comes from the contemporary use of the phrase "doctrine of chances" to mean the theory of probability, which had … Bayes’ paper - 1763 Bayes’ probability - 1763 • Suppose I get £1 if X occurs • I am willing to bet 60p on X • Then my probability is 60/100 = 0.6 • Nothing to do with ‘frequency’ or ‘randomness’ – reasonable betting odds Flipping coins Two types of uncertainty Aleatory – chance, unpredictable (can’t know) The trouble and the subsequent busts came from overen-thusiastic application of the theorem in the absence of genuine prior information, with Pierre-Simon Laplace as a prime violator. Bayes’ 1763 paper was an impeccable exercise in probability theory. Suppose that in the twins example we lacked the prior knowledge that one-third of twins are identical. This paper takes the reader on a chronological tour of Bayesian computation over the past two and a half centuries. Metadata comes from the CrossRef API, see full record in the source URL below. This paper takes the reader on a chronological tour of Bayesian computation over the past two and a half centuries. This paper analyzes Thomas Bayes' essay of 1763, together with the additions by Richard Price, in relation to (1) historical influences and (2) the Bayesianism of the 20th century. This paper is in the public domain in USA. As regards (1), historical evidence is presented linking Price with Hume, and it is argued that Price's additions are likely to have been written as an attempt to solve Hume's problem of induction. Thomas Bayes (/ b eɪ z /; c. 1701 – 7 April 1761) was an English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister who is known for formulating a specific case of the theorem that bears his name: Bayes' theorem.Bayes never published what would become his most famous accomplishment; his notes were edited and published after his death by Richard Price. Beginning with the one-dimensional integral first confronted by Bayes in 1763, through to recent problems in which the unknowns number in the millions, we place all computational problems into a common framework, and describe all computational methods using a common notation. This paper takes the reader on a chronological tour of Bayesian computation over the past two and a half centuries. Beginning with the one-dimensional integral rst confronted by Bayes in 1763, through to recent problems in which the unknowns number in the millions, we place all computational problems into a common framework, and describe all compu- tational methods using a common notation. This paper takes the reader on a chronological tour of Bayesian computation over the past two and a half centuries.