Its a good start, but of course we need a lot more snow! However, if one wants to know what the outliner members show, the following was indicated in last nights 00z ECMWF; It had two splitting systems that spin up closed lows, which one affected mainly Central and the Southern half of CA and the Desert SW. Lucky Friday the 13th…. This means that it is very unlikely now but not impossible, that a good storm will occur this far south into California through early December. Take control of your data. So it is still possible we may have a decient system the end of the month according to the CFS. The Latest CPC information put current sea surface anomalies over the NINO 3.4 region at -1.5C. Expect highs in the 40s with lows in the teens this weekend. Nevertheless, we will have more storms this winter and the Dweebs will be reporting on their prospects, even on an interseasonal scale time frame. Lots of discuessions! Thank you for reporting this station. However, on the optimistic side, there are a few members of the ECMWF that split off some short wave energy around Thanksgiving and again the very end of the month. In the beginning of morning astronomical twilight and at the end of astronomical twilight in the evening, sky illumination is very faint, and might be undetectable. The Hovemuller time series for the MJO, shows, the outgoing long wave radiation from convection forecasted to be very strong, as projected by the Climate Forecast System. Ensemble shows a stormy period from the middle of December all the way through months end and beyond a few days into the New Year…. That’s fairly high snowlevels and well south of the polar jet. One Friday mid morning and the other on Sunday. The colder waters just west of the date line eastward to the Central American coast will constructively interfere with the MJO this Winter, until it gets over the Indian Ocean! The latest QPF brings 1 to 4 inches of wet snow in town by the end of the day Wednesday and between 5 and 10 inches over the crest. Should this occur, conditions would become increasingly favorable for Indian Ocean tropical cyclogenesis during the outlook period, and may promote renewed West Pacific activity beyond the two-week outlook period. Tahoe will fair better to our north, but it will be pretty wet snow at 7K. I Just finished looking at this mornings guidence and the many weather sites around. Next productive major change in the pattern will be in Mid December, as long range teleconnections show once again, the possibility of a (-PNA) teleconnection pattern setting up. That is usually a windy pattern but a dry one at that. However, it is just an outlook, and not a forecast yet and there is a difference. The upper jet resides over the Pacific Northwest keeping the windward Olympics wet with decent shadowing for Seattle and precipitation expected south through Oregon with lighter amounts south to Highway 80. The La Nina Base State is very strong and maybe acting as a barrier with its quite cold water, destructively interfering to the MJOS convective envelope. Will update on that later next week to see if there is anything to it. Women's workout pants that stand up to winter elements, How to eat healthy during winter and holidays, AccuWeather School: Bugs walking on water isn’t a superhero power. The best part of the change was to put the kabash on the Creek fire so we could all breath a lot easier. The -PNA teleconnection pattern is the one we want. Rainy Thanksgiving Day forecast from Florida to Maine, Player made NFL debut in one of the most famous bad-weather games in football history, Daily coronavirus briefing: World hits 60 million cumulative COVID-19 cases, Satellites capture each storm from historic hurricane season, What historic accounts tell us about weather during the 1st Thanksgiving. In the meantime, high temps will cool to the upper 30s by Saturday and lows will be in the single digits and teens…..Great snowmaking weather!! The Prind point here is that the Dynamical model MJO index forecasts favors continued eastward propagation, with a potential of a “New Indian Ocean MJO event” materializing during Week-2. Breezy weather continued this morning with windy conditions over the highest elevations w/gusts to 60mph. Howard’s Favorite Forecasting and Data Resources. The MJO peaked around 60E to 70E Monday and Tuesday and is now weakening rapidly. This is a warm advection pattern whereby moist air is moving over the colder air currently in place, left over from last weekends storm. Mammoth Lakes, CA - Weather forecast from Theweather.com. The Medium Range guidance does show a rise in the freezing level this weekend so it will be warmer Sunday and Monday and with Ridging building in early next week, it will get warmer yet. Steve Taylor – The Mammoth Snowman – Over the last 30+ years, Snowman has spent countless hours studying and learning about Mammoth Mountain Weather and Snow Conditions first hand.